Yellowstone nightmare: destroy the United States if a supervolcano? And pity if Russia?

Super eruption in North America - the United States a threat or disaster terrestrial scale, promising evil throughout the northern hemisphere? Is Russia ready for him?

Viral News that "we are all about to die" from the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, shaken by the World Wide Web once every few years. However, as a more balanced analysis of the scientists, geologists, in reality it is almost always a false alarm. Confidently say that a supervolcano can erupt at any particular time, it is impossible today. Only recently, geologists discovered "heavy breathing" -lёgkoe fluctuation level Yellowstone caldera (volcanic basin). Until now, there are disputes about the significance of this phenomenon: whether it can be used to predict the activity of the volcano? Modern methods of monitoring is even taking the first steps in the field of conventional earthquake predictions.Super eruption Yellowstone type - fundamentally stronger and less. Therefore, the experience of observing live for humanity just yet. The first people who have experienced many such eruptions were illiterate and did not leave any seismological observations. So the correct answer to the question "When Yellowstone explode?" It is not "tomorrow or in a year," and "We do not know" and "at any time".

                                                Catastrophe.

 What could be the consequences of the awakening Yellowstone supervolcano? To better understand the scale of this event is to look at the last super eruption in the region. It is known as "Lava Creek" happened 630,000 years ago. According to current data, while emissions have reached at least 1,000 cubic kilometers (billions of tons), and the ashes of an unknown amount of sulfur dioxide.
Particulate emissions have covered the area from the Gulf of Mexico in the east to the Pacific Ocean to the west. And the ashes lay on the south of modern Canada and Mexico to the north. It is easy to notice that this is the main part of the territory of today's United States, which in the future will automatically eruption of the first and hardest hit. ash emissions can be very dangerous - its thickness after the "Lava Creek" on the surface of the earth reaches 180-200 meters. Although it was not everywhere, nevertheless the layer was thick enough to destroy all life on the territory of at least hundreds of thousands of square kilometers. This ash is not fell like lightning: modern views, "black snow" after super eruption can go a whole day. However, any living being must sometimes stop to sleep. Often such stop in the constantly falling on top of the ash may be the last for him  .

 

 
Last danger? Not yet: next to the Yellowstone caldera all the above problems will not disturb anyone. The US Geological Survey says, the eruption of this kind will be accompanied by large-scale emission of lava. The only question is, will spread lava for 10 or 30 kilometers per side of the caldera. Some spills last hundred thousand years covered 340 square kilometers at a time (the Moscow area - more than 2500). In the area of ​​the lava fields of anything and everything just burned, so the ashes and so there will be absolutely no actual threat.
 US researchers console: the ash is likely to affect the weak California and Florida, and thus spare the two important centers of agricultural States. One problem - when the bulk of the country's territory is covered with ash deposits multimeter, feed them due to a pair of barn-states will be very difficult. And even if there is something to grow, it is likely that food is nowhere not reach. Ashes blocking railways and roads, and air transport for a long time at all will not be able to fly in indicated in the above region.

Judging by the experience incomparably smaller Eyjafjallajökull volcano, the ash are easily damaged aircraft turbines, and all the air routes near the active volcano they will be permanently closed. This alone creates an unthinkable for the modern world traffic jams. Today, in the event of disasters such as New Orleans (hurricane "Katrina") can be sent to the army and the National Guard under the military transport - but in the case of the effects of the Yellowstone just such an opportunity is not available. No evacuate or to deliver food and water to the site of a disaster, as a rule, simply will not work.

To understand the scale of the disaster is easily one comparison. Calculations show that during a nuclear war in one ton of TNT equivalent in the atmosphere will get up to 5 tons of dust and soot. This means that even in the complete disposal of all nuclear weapons in the air will rise less than lifted Yellowstone 630,000 years ago.

 

   

              
"What we are Poles?"

     Of course, we can console ourselves with the fact that the lava (probably) and ash (with some probability) did not reach the territory of Russia. Although ash supervolcano Toba (Indonesia) at the time, even flew to the lakes of East Africa, where it traces not so long ago it was discovered by geologists. So that echo from the American ashes may well reach Russia. However, it is unlikely to bother some of its inhabitants. After all, they will have more pressing reason to think.Geophysicist Victor Bokov from the Russian State Hydrometeorological University in comments Life noted that after such an event is raised billions of tons of ash will inevitably rise to the stratosphere. There, as the scientist blowing jet streams at speeds up to 200 kilometers per hour. The atmosphere over the northern hemisphere is dominated by western transfer, so part of Yellowstone emissions is fully capable to reach a number of regions of our country.More importantly, aerosols formed by ash (as well as sulfur dioxide), will reflect a significant percentage of solar radiation, causing global cooling. Without knowing the force of the future super eruption to predict the scale of the volcanic winter can not exactly. For Russia, we will focus on reducing the average temperature a few degrees. On the face of it a bit. However, on closer examination it becomes clear that a possible disaster will have a colossal scale for us.
 In Moscow (now the average is 4.1 degrees Celsius) or Penza climate in years will be the same as in Murmansk (+0.2). Not only mean streak, but the bulk of Chernozem region on the temperature becomes similar to the forest tundra of the Kola Peninsula. Of course, agriculture in the usual sense of the word is simply stop - potatoes and wheat does not grow in the tundra. The plants will not have enough heat to grow.According to Victor Bokova, the ancient chronicles have recorded similar individual climate problems in the past of our country - up to the XII century. Then they were accompanied by a catastrophic famine. However, the severity of the particular scenario Yellowstone adds that volcanic aerosols do not leave the atmosphere in a year or two. Depending on the strength of Yellowstone super eruption they will hold there for a few years or even a decade. The drop in temperature on Earth will lead to a significant reduction in volatility - and rain. Even where there will be a little warmer than it is now in Murmansk, there may come a prolonged drought.All this means that crop failures are not just totally, but also long-term. Something can grow only in regions such as Crimea and Kuban (unless, of course, there will not disappear rainfall). But this will not be the usual for these places food crops and those that usually grow to hundreds or thousands of kilometers to the north. And to feed the entire country with the Kuban Piglet will not be so easy. Due to the global nature of the disaster and do not look for international assistance - the whole world will be faced with the prospect of starvation. The planet is not just countries with food reserves equal to 5-10 years in their own consumption. Not the fact that many people will avoid depopulation as a result of starvation.

 

 

 Oh good !

 However, both domestic and American scientists insist that the scope of a future disaster is still relatively moderate. The extinction of the human species as a whole from one superizverzheniya us exactly safe. As noted by Jamie Farrell (Jamie Farrell), a renowned expert on the Yellowstone from the University of Utah: "Almost certainly we will not die out completely from the [future] Yellowstone eruptions After the last couple of million years superizverzheniya already happened, but we're still here.". And indeed, this supervolcano 630,000 years ago did not kill our older relatives - Homo erectus.

At the same time, the resort is still not worth the wait. Superizverzhenie Toba eruption 70,000 years ago at the time coincides with the sudden extinction of Homo sapiens, who managed to reach Asia. They survived only in Africa, but the number of them at the same time fell by ten times. 40 thousand years ago superizverzhenie near the Phlegrean Fields (Italy) are temporarily covered with ashes from the area of ​​modern Naples to Donbass. For a long time in this part of Europe disappeared all traces of both humans and Neanderthals. And at the same time, the global extinction did not happen - a sharp decline in numbers. When dressed in the skins of hunter-gatherers managed to survive despite the sharp climate deterioration, and mass destruction of animals, then some chance of survival is and we, their descendants.

  

           When the clap of thunder?

 

Is it possible to know exactly when to dig a cellar in the yard and ready to speculate stew? Unfortunately, the current state of Volcanology does not allow an accurate prediction of this kind. As Viktor Bokov believes popular attempts to identify the frequency super eruptions have little to do with science. "When they say that superizverzheniya happen every 50000-100000 years, we are talking about very rough assumptions," - he said. It is true only that the scientist concludes that the longer one or the other is not a supervolcano erupted, the more likely it superizverzheniya in the future.Sometimes American experts allow themselves more confident statements. Peter Cervelló (Peter Cervelli) Service of Geology, Geodesy and Cartography of the US Ministry of Internal Affairs said that Yellowstone superizverzheniya will not be "in the next 10,000 years." True, he immediately specifies: "We are always ready for surprises [in this regard] and do not claim to fully understand that everything connected with it." However, geologists from the area of ​​future earthquakes often tend to do the politically conditioned reassuring statements, which then turn out to be overly optimistic. Similar forecasts of Italian geologists in 2009 led to an increase in the number of victims of the earthquake in L'Aquila. In our country, the majority of experts with dubious about the idea of ​​a possible pre-accurate predictions of how much we will have to wait for the next event of this kind.However, it notes Viktor Bokov Volcanology can point to a situation in which the probability of superizverzheniya increase substantially. In the case of Yellowstone its trigger may well be a nuclear war. As you know, the US is a priority target for a significant number of nuclear warheads. One of them might explode next to the Yellowstone caldera and accidentally provoke a similar catastrophe. However, as mentioned above, the cooling effect for the global climate Yellowstone itself can not be weaker than a nuclear war. Thus, mankind in this case would be to double the scale of a disaster.At the same time, he said Viktor Bokov, attempts to intentionally provoke supervolcanoes nuclear weapons themselves are ineffective. After all, in order to guarantee to run the eruption, it is necessary to understand exactly how will spread shock waves from nuclear explosions in the upper mantle, and where they will come. And our planet - the non-stationary object, it changes slightly all the time, its bark is exposed to a constant shifting of the fine, says geophysicist. Just predict the consequences of provoking a hypothetical nuclear attack is impossible. Therefore, you can not blow up the Yellowstone and planned - only occasionally.To sum up: although American volcano seems distant from the problems of our country, in fact, his muzzle charge of the human mind in general. And even if the mortal wound he can not afford to put a threat on the seriousness of this is comparable to a nuclear war. Compounding the situation is that if a number of countries at least theoretically, is preparing for the last government, the supervolcano does not affect the state planning and the accumulation of reserves in case of an emergency. Without some serious breakthrough in volcanology all that scientists are not yet able to say about the timing of this event - is that sooner or later it is bound to happen. And taking into account the lack of specific terms, allows us to take preventive measures, we may be completely exposed in front of him.